With the massive and overwhelming invasion fiction dispelled in our last entry in this series on the border crisis, the next few entries will seek to provide you with a more comprehensive understanding of illegal immigrants as a people. Today, we focus on the claim that they pose a nefarious criminal threat to America.
Last time, we quoted Trump’s own words about the great host of horrible gang members, rapists, drug traffickers, and other nefarious criminals who wantonly invade our country through the southwestern border with Mexico.[1][2] According to him, “large, well-organized caravans of migrants are marching towards our southern border” and “they have violently overrun the Mexican border… These are tough people, in many cases. A lot of young men, strong men.”[3] He’s not alone in these statements. A quick search of Fox News and various Republican congressmen will reveal a plethora of claims about a rapidly growing crime rate due to criminal immigrants. As Representative Paul Broun once put it to an agreeable conservative host Laura Ingraham in an interview, “These illegal aliens are criminals and we need to treat them as such.”[4]
That’s their claim. What does the evidence tell us? It tells us that Trump, Broun, Ingraham, and many other conservatives have grossly mischaracterized unauthorized immigrants; their claim is false.
To begin with, it is simply false to state that illegal border crossings are done by mostly young men. We can estimate the unauthorized immigrant demographics by analyzing the US Customs and Border Protection’s apprehension records. In Trump’s first year in office (2017), the CBP reports approximately 75,600 adults, children, and infants migrating as family units were apprehended along the southwestern border. An additional 41,400 unaccompanied children were likewise apprehended that year. This is out of a total of 303,900 apprehensions in 2017.[5] Mathematics informs us that about 61% of border patrol apprehensions are therefore of single adults. Absent of an official gender record of the apprehended, we do know that the total unauthorized immigrant population in the US is about 52% male and 48% female.[6] Reasonably assuming the unauthorized apprehended population has a similar gender makeup, we can estimate that perhaps 97,100 single adults were apprehended that year. Given that 41% of the total unauthorized population is between 16 and 34 years old,[6] we can then estimate that about 39,800 young men were apprehended along the southwestern border in 2017. 39,800 out of a total of 303,900 apprehensions indicates that only about 13% of apprehended unauthorized immigrants along the border are young men. This is a small minority, and certainly not, as Trump put it, “a lot of” them.
As an aside, yet worth noting here, the total numbers of apprehensions is actually greater than the total number of apprehended individuals. The CBP reports that 10% of all apprehensions along the southwestern border are for repeat offenders.[7] In other words, some individuals have made multiple attempts to gain illegal entry into the US. Therefore, while the total apprehensions is 303,900 in 2017, the total number of apprehended illegal immigrants is up to 30,400 fewer than this, or as low as 273,500 individuals including family members, children, and all genders and ages.
But we’re not done yet. How many of the unauthorized are in fact criminals? The assumption that most of them are violent criminals is simply false. To begin with, it is illogical to presume criminality on the sole basis of unauthorized entry into the US. One can be an unauthorized migrant and also be a criminal (i.e. assault, murder, rape, etc.), but one can also be an unauthorized migrant and not be guilty of assault, murder, rape, or any other crimes. Indeed, one can also be a criminal without being an unauthorized migrant. The two conditions are therefore not mutually inclusive.
Of the roughly 303,900 CBP apprehensions along the border, only 8,531 were of individuals with criminal records, illegal entry aside.[7] We can therefore estimate using math that approximately 2.8% of all illegal immigrants along the southwest border have criminal records (since 8,531 is about 2.8% of 303,900). We might be tempted to assume that only the young men must be criminals instead. But that would be an unreasonable assumption, given that older men, women, and even children are all also capable of committing crimes.
What about gang members? Are there hordes of gang members coming into the US to murder and rape us? Again, according to the CBP records, there were a grand total of 538 apprehensions of gang members in 2017.[7] 538 apprehensions out of a total of 303,900 is not even two-tenths of a percent.
Ok, but are we cherry picking the year 2017 for some reason? What about the years before and after 2017? While the total numbers of apprehensions, criminals, etc., goes up or down in each year, the demographics change very little. During President Obama’s final year in office (2016) for instance, the total apprehensions along the border numbered over 415,800 altogether, with just under 77,900 members of family units, just under 59,800 unaccompanied kids, and 702 gang members.[8] The CBP’s 2016 report neglects to give the number of unauthorized with criminal records. But we might get a similar idea of that percentage of criminals by looking at ports of entry records (border crossings where goods are cleared and immigrants legally seek entry). Of the over 274,800 “inadmissible” immigrants, only 8,129 were arrested for serious crimes.[8] In Trump’s second year (2018), the CBP apprehended a little under 396,600 along the border; over 107,200 were members of family units, just over 50,000 were unaccompanied kids, 6,698 were criminals and 808 were gang members.[9][10]
So fewer than 3% of the people crossing the southwestern border illegally have criminal records. This only tells us about their past convictions, though. What about what these people are doing once they get into the US illegally? Good question. The facts show us that, contrary to popular belief, crime rates in communities along the border with large unauthorized populations are for the most part lower, not higher, than the national average. Unauthorized immigrants in fact commit fewer crimes than native US citizens on average, not more. Examining records from 2015 for instance, of the 23 border communities in the US, only five have higher rates of violent crime than the national average; and just one or two of the five have a comparable rate. Only three of the 23 have higher rates of homicide than the national average; only one of the three has a significantly higher rate.[11]
In summary, the claim that most, if not all, illegal immigrants are all hardened criminals who are endangering our nation is unequivocally a false claim. That’s not to say that there are zero criminals crossing the border. Of course there should be appropriate law enforcement along the border, and of course elsewhere in the US for that matter. But this analysis of factual data has shown us that very, very few unauthorized immigrants are actually hardened criminals, that with few exceptions, we actually have more to be concerned about from native US citizens when it comes to violent crime.
What does this tell us then about Trump, Broun, Ingraham, and the many other notable conservative figures in both public office and in the media who have repeatedly and openly claimed that illegal immigrants are a massive criminal threat to the US? Logically, there are only two possibilities that explain their actions. The best we can say is that these are extraordinarily ignorant people. They’ve been speaking about a subject matter they clearly do not understand. Their inflammatory and fear-mongering rhetoric is worthy of neither your respect, nor are these people worthy of your trust. On a darker note, if Trump and other conservative figures do know the facts and have not been ignorant about the characteristics of illegal immigrants, then they’ve been purposely and repeatedly lying to us about them all along.
Why lie about unauthorized immigrants? Why baselessly demonize this group of people? Let us save the delving into the motivations of those who profess abhorrence to unauthorized immigration for another day.
In the next post in this border crisis series, we move on to answer a different question. Having resolved that the claim of hordes of illegal immigrants posing a massive criminal threat to the nation is a false narrative, the question remains: who are the unauthorized, then? Who are they in reality? And why do they really come here illegally?
Tune in next time to find out.
Sources
[1] Suzanne Gamboa, “Donald Trump Announces Presidential Bid By Trashing Mexico, Mexicans,” NBC News, June 16, 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/donald-trump-announces-presidential-bid-trashing-mexico-mexicans-n376521 (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[2] Joel Rose, “FACT CHECK: Migrants Are Not Overwhelming The Southwest Border,” NPR, Nov. 2, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/11/02/663532238/fact-check-migrants-are-not-overwhelming-the-southwest-border (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[3] Donald Trump, “Remarks by President Trump on the Illegal Immigration Crisis and Border Security,” WhiteHouse.gov, Nov. 1, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-illegal-immigration-crisis-border-security/ (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[4] Daniel Strauss, “Rep. Broun says some Republicans are ‘getting soft’ on immigration,” The Hill, Mar. 22, 2013, https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/289873-rep-broun-says-some-republicans-are-getting-soft-on-immigration (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[5] “Southwest Border Migration FY2017,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Dec. 15, 2017, https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration-fy2017 (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[6] Randy Capps and Jeanne Batalova, “Profile of the Unauthorized Population: United States,” from “Unauthorized Immigrant Population Profiles,” Migration Policy Institute, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unauthorized-immigrant-population/state/US (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[7] “CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2020,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[8] “CBP Border Security Report,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Dec. 30, 2016, https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2018-Mar/CBP-fy2016-border-security-report.pdf (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[9] “Southwest Border Migration FY2018,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Nov. 9, 2018, https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/fy-2018 (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[10] “CBP Enforcement Statistics FY2018,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics-fy2018 (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
[11] Adam Isacson, Carolyn Scorpio, and Maureen Meyer, “Not a National Security Crisis: The U.S.-Mexico Border and Humanitarian Concerns, Seen from El Paso,” Washington Office on Latin America, Oct. 27, 2016, https://www.wola.org/analysis/not-national-security-crisis-u-s-mexico-border-humanitarian-concerns-seen-el-paso/ (accessed Sept. 27, 2020).
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