In part one of this series on the southern US border crisis, we mentioned some of the nefarious claims made about illegal immigrants by Donald Trump that are believed to be true by his supporters. Over the next few entries of this series, we cast an objective lens on the situation through the exploration and analysis of the facts.
Let us begin by asking two fundamental questions. Exactly how many illegal immigrants are coming into the US from Mexico, central, and south America? And what kinds of people are we speaking about: good people, bad people, or what?
According to Trump’s own characterizations over the years, southern border migrants consist of an “invasion” of many horrible gang members, rapists, drug traffickers, and other nefarious criminals.[1] There is “an invasion of our country with drugs, with human traffickers, with all types of criminals and gangs.”[2] And if we don’t halt it, or so he claims, “The current influx… threatens to overwhelm our immigration system and our communities, and poses unacceptable dangers to the entire nation.”[3] He’s also claimed that “large, well-organized caravans of migrants are marching towards our southern border. Some people call it an ‘invasion.’ It’s like an invasion. They have violently overrun the Mexican border… These are tough people, in many cases. A lot of young men, strong men.”[4]
In reality, all of these claims are verifiably false. Let us address the question of population for starters. Must we fear a massive and overwhelming incursion of criminals at the border?
Hardly. The total population of unauthorized immigrants in the US has not only not increased, but has actually steadily declined over the last 13 years. From an all-time peak of 12.2 million in 2007, the total undocumented population dropped to 10.7 million in 2016, and again down to 10.5 million by 2017.[5] Those from Mexico in particular accounted for just under 7 of the 12.2 million total in 2007, declining to about 5.4 million by 2016 and just under 5 million by 2017.[6] An increasing number of the undocumented from the southern border includes central Americans, particularly from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. However, they account for only 1.5 million of the 2007 total, rising by only about 400 thousand by 2017 to 1.9 million.[5]
With the total US population growing from 302 million to 324 million between 2007 and 2016, that means that, as a percentage of our total population, the unauthorized have in fact declined from a peak of 4% of us down to 3% by 2016. Only 1.5% (about half of that 3%) of America’s total population came here illegally from Mexico; or about 2% (two-thirds of 3%) if you combine Mexico, central, and south American migrants.
This only tells us the total population of unauthorized Mexicans, central, and south American immigrants in the US, though. The fact of the matter is that the steady decline of unauthorized immigrants indicates that more are leaving the US than entering.[7] Counting the total population also does not tell us how they arrived in the US, or when. I will save the very interesting question of how for a later post in this series, at the answer is quite revealing in light of another common myth about illegal immigration to be discussed. But as for when, of the several million unauthorized immigrants here today, about two-thirds of them have lived here for more than ten years, while only 20% have lived here for five or fewer years.[8] How many undocumented are actually crossing the border each year, then? In 2015, the total number of apprehensions made by US Customs and Border Patrol agents along the southwestern border with Mexico between ports of entry was 331.3 thousand.[9] In the next three years, the number of apprehensions were 479.4 thousand (2016), 303.9 thousand (2017), and 396.6 thousand (2018).[9] These numbers were considerably higher in the past, however, with the yearly trend showing a very significant decline since 2007 when the US CBP apprehended 858.6 thousand, and over a million in more years than not prior.[9]
So, are we being invaded en masse by illegal immigrants? Apparently not.
It is crucial to notice that Donald Trump was not sworn into office as POTUS until January 2017. The decline of unauthorized immigration began at the tail end of President Bush’s second term in office, at the start of the great recession; and it continued to steadily decline throughout the entire administration of President Obama. When Trump started making his claims of an overwhelming invasion in May 2015 during his announcement of presidential candidacy, and onwards throughout 2016 and 2017, he was clearly contradicting the facts as they were known even at that time.
But what about our second question? Whether large or small in population, is it still true that the worst of humanity is coming in? We’ll answer that question next time.
Sources
[1] Suzanne Gamboa, “Donald Trump Announces Presidential Bid By Trashing Mexico, Mexicans,” NBC News, June 16, 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/donald-trump-announces-presidential-bid-trashing-mexico-mexicans-n376521 (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[2] Joel Rose, “FACT CHECK: Migrants Are Not Overwhelming The Southwest Border,” NPR, Nov. 2, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/11/02/663532238/fact-check-migrants-are-not-overwhelming-the-southwest-border (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[3] Donald Trump, “Remarks by President Trump on the National Security and Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border,” WhiteHouse.gov, Feb. 15, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-national-security-humanitarian-crisis-southern-border/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[4] Donald Trump, “Remarks by President Trump on the Illegal Immigration Crisis and Border Security,” WhiteHouse.gov, Nov. 1, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-illegal-immigration-crisis-border-security/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[5] Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “Mexicans decline to less than half the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population for the first time,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/us-unauthorized-immigrant-population-2017/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[6] Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey S. Passel, and D’Vera Cohn, “5 facts about illegal immigration in the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[7] Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, “More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, Nov. 19, 2015, https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[8] Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey S. Passel, and D’Vera Cohn, “5 facts about illegal immigration in the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/12/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
[9] “Border Patrol Total Apprehensions Fiscal Years 2000 to 2018,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Mar. 2019, https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Mar/BP%20Total%20Apps%2C%20Mexico%2C%20OTM%20FY2000-FY2018%20REV.pdf (accessed Sept. 7, 2020).
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